Hey, Shack. . . there is more bullishness on the boards today, but was there before the close? In other words, has the AH ramp led to rampant bullishness?
I was gonna work on my post to Bobcor about what's the same/different between now and early April. As I said, Bobcor's post made great sense to me, but the same coulda been said right before that 40% rally in the Naz. I ain't predicting that here, but I do want to be wary of the stealth summer rally. Unfortunately, real work has interfered today. Maybe after MSFT hits 120 tomorrow, though, and I sell all my calls (bought at the bottom today), I can stop working. Ya. Right. <g>
Anyway, a few thoughts. . .
The Fed is still printing money. We are closer to when the rate cuts "kick in." We are closer to the tax rebates hitting the mail. This is all "progress" from April, and the only reasons I can see for bullishness of any sort: we're closer to the rebound, whenever it'll come. On the flip side, the Fed is running out of bullets and has proven to be pretty powerless. Also, as the rest of the world economies slip, it's unclear if any of the above matter.
What's different now from April 4? The Rydex numbers were skewed more (bullish for the market) now than I recall them being in early April. The fear of a MSFT warning is now gone (though they have a CC tomorrow after the close, and could easily guide down as a real kick in the pants). We haven't fallen as far as we did from Jan-April. Don Hays keeps harping on that ARMS signal -- and it ultimately kicked in before.
I guess my thoughts are easy to sum up: in the big picture from a fundamental point of view, there's no real reason to go up here. But things were bad on April 3, too. Fundamentals kept getting worse, but the markets rallied hard. Was there a clear wave count then that implied a rally? Certainly right now, it's a little unclear what's going on, though I think there are still some very bearish counts in play, and the markets all have a long way to go before they reverse trend.
Again, I'm not saying we're gonna rally. I'm just wondering what we might find different between now and early April that would imply we WON'T rally. . . or if enough is the same that it implies that, fundies be damned, we're going up.
sorry for the ramble. . .
the freep |
