Intraday Investments Stalk Sheet for Thursday, July 12, 2001
Wednesday was a choppy day in the markets and it would have been easy to lose big without proper physical stops. The markets slashed back and forth from the high to the low to the high and finally into the upper half of the trading range by sessions end. Then, after the closing bell, positive news from Microsoft that 4th quarter revenues would be higher than previously projected and a modestly positive slew of earnings announcements from the likes of MOT, YHOO, RBAK, SONS, DNA and others led a huge rally in the futures markets. As of this writing, the Nasdaq Futures are trading up +66.50 and the S&P futures are up + 13.70.
With stocks gapping up across the board, we expect to be fading the gap up in the morning. We will focus on shorting stocks that closed near their lows of the session on Wednesday and that gap up on light volume into resistance on Thursday. Further we must carefully scan the news to avoid shorting stocks that gap up on significant news or significant group or sector news.
The Oil services sector looks primed for a rebound coming into Thursday. After getting smashed early in Wednesday’s session, Oil Service stocks closed with a vengeance.
The big names on the earnings calendar tomorrow include: ABT, ENE, FTU, GE, KRB, MTG, DJ, AMD, EFII, JNPR and RMBS. The last four stocks listed announce after the close.
POTENTIAL FADE CANDIDATES:
NVDA, Nvidia, Short Fade into light volume gap up < 83.50 to 84.50 resistance zone, Graphics Video
Immediately after the close, this stock saw some large block trades until 4:50 pm with the total of all trades up to this point equaling approximately 62,000 shares. During this time frame the stock did not trade above 79.30 and at 4:52 it traded 8400 shares at $78.57. From that point on the stock traded no more that 35,000 shares with no single block greater than 2000 shares. This means that every 7,000 shares traded from this point on raised the price of the stock by $1.00. This smells of classic retail over- reaction to me. Only the pre market and early morning can tell the true story but thus far, NVDA looks primed for the fade.
Further, this stock languished most of the day before closing in the upper 40% of it’s trading range on average volume. But be careful fading this one because once the mo mo’s get on this stock, it can run against you quickly. Also, be aware that the MSFT news could also be a propelling factor for NVDA (ie.Microsoft’s X box project with NVDA).
AVCI, Avici Systems, Short Fade into light volume gap up < 7.50 to 7.85 resistance zone, Backbone Routers
This stock closed in the lower 30% of it’s trading range on Wednesday on heavy volume. It was a dog all day. Then it traded 500 shares at 4:13 pm at $6.73. It traded no other shares until 6:45 pm when a lone 400 share block went off at $7.03 a whopping 4% jump on absolutely no volume! From that point on the stock traded a measly 26,000 shares and closed the after hours session at $7.45. Total gain 11% + / -.
JNPR, Juniper Networks, Fade Short into light volume gap up < 27 to 28.25 resistance zone, Backbone Routers
This stock closed on heavy volume in the lower third of its trading range for the day. After the Close, the stock saw the majority of its volume and big block volume up until 5:15 pm. Yet, to that point, it never traded higher than $25.10. From 5:15 on, the stock only trade 13 blocks greater than 2,000 shares and only minimal volume yet it ran almost $2.00. Can you say: retail neophytes got home from work? Anyway, as with NVDA this stock can act crazy when the MoMo’s get on it. So if we fade it, be careful.
PXLW, Pixel Works, Fade Short into light volume gap up < 25.00 to 25.75 resistance zone, CPU’s, $SOX.X
This stock closed virtually at the low of the day on huge volume. Immediately after the close 200,000 shares of volume went off (2 trades made up 175,000 shares of this volume) and the stock moved little off its closing price. Then, on no more than 8,000 shares of retail volume, the stock ran $1.75. Let’s see, that’s a $1.00 jump for each 4,571 shares traded. How silly does it get?
LONGS:
BHI, Baker Hughes, Long >32.30, Oil Service (Drillers), $OSX.X
Stock closed near the high of the day on great volume and formed a long legged doji reversal candle. Sector due for a bounce since RSI failed to set a new low as the stock did today.
TDW, Tidewater, Long >38.50, Oil Service (Drillers), $OSX.X
Also formed a long legged doji reversal candle and closed near high of the day. Above this price TDW has resistance at 39.00 but will be above all major moving averages on the 5, 15 and 60 min charts.
DO, Diamond Offshore, Long > 32.00, Oil Service (Drillers), $OSX.X
Rallied nicely into the close on strong volume. Above 32 this stock takes out the 200 ma on the 5 min chart, the 40 ma on the 15 min chart and the 20 ma on the 60 min chart. Above 32.15 this one takes out Monday’s closing price, Tuesday’s opening price and Wednesday’s high of the day. Breaking this resistance should fuel a powerful move.
SLB, Schlumberger, Ltd., Long > 52.25, Oil Service, (Drillers), $OSX.X
Above here the stock breaks major moving average resistance on the 15 and 60 min charts. Stock close near the high of the day on great volume after early day sell off. Very bullish reversal candle. Will need continued high volume to break resistance.
IRF, International Rectifier, Long > 33.20, Mixed-Signal, $SOX.X
Stock has been consolidating for the past 4 days. With a gap up (and hold) or a rally above this key Fibo resistance, this stock could see 33.90 then 34.50.
Trade Well Today!
Ed, Steve, and Deron
General Partners
intradayinvestments.com |
