MDA - Market Direction Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 660.19

-0.8%

4:00 PM EST

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To: bobby beara who wrote (80034)	7/11/2001 11:53:58 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Bobby, I think of three things that make me believe we're still going lower before we start a bull: -World Stock Markets - Most of them are in the tank. The US should follow. Things aren't that much better here. -Economics - GDP figures for June coming out soon, and unemployment on the rise. I read a decent theory that when unemployment rises 1%, the market puts in a bottom. It seems to work pretty well. We need to get to 4.9%, and we're at 4.5% now (we hit 3.9% in October). -Earnings - P/E's are going to shoot up after the next round of earnings shows contraction in earnings. That will need to be addressed in equity prices. Downward guidance will also need to be priced in.

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