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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis
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To: Paul Shread who wrote (11454)7/12/2001 12:47:57 AM
From: isopatch  Read Replies (1) of 52237
 
Hi Paul. IMO? More of the same.

During the past few weeks, we completed an Intermediate Term top and the primary Bear Market trend has reasserted itself.

For longs, the best I can see is small counter trend rallies mixed with wipsaws punctuating a continuing down trend in the major indices.

Still expecting at least a test of the Mar/Apr lows. Does it hold? I don't know. But it looks to me like the odds favor a break to new lows.

The US dollar is over valued and must be brought down soon to avoid a deflationary scenario. Cracks are appearing all over the global economy. Argentina and Turkey are simply the latest flash points to join Japan and it's smaller trading partners in Asia who export oriented economies have been seriously impacted by the US slowdown. The eastern European nations are weak and Russia continues vulnerable.

My view is that unless there's a G-8 agreement on the dollar similar to the 1985 NY Plaza Accord there will soon be too many fires for the international financial community to deal with.

Although I do a lot of TA work in my trading, there further I look past the ST the more weight I give to maco-economic fundamentals.

IMO, the best approach for conservative LT investors is to continue to hold high cash reserves. For the more adventuresome? 1. Carefully planned and executed selling short into rallies and/or 2. Buying dips or corrections in the precious metals stocks look like the best bets going forward.

Best regards,

Isopatch
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