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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: The Freep who wrote (6930)	7/12/2001 12:55:16 AM
From: Shack	Read Replies (2) of 209892

there is more bullishness on the boards today, but was there before the close? In other words, has the AH ramp led to rampant bullishness I really only care about how quick we return to euphoric levels. Like I said, there was doubt off the April 4 rally and it took a while before the sentiment got really complacent. Not to mention the VIX was at 40 back then..it is only at 27 right now. but I do want to be wary of the stealth summer rally Healthy fear and I think it is possible. Where does the VIX drop to then? We got to 18 during last summer's rally. The Fed is still printing money. We are closer to when the rate cuts "kick in." These two are of course related and can be gauged by M3 and other monetary aggregates. The growth rate of M3 and M2 are turning down. M3 actually dropped this week though this has happened before, but never two weeks in a row so I am watching and am on alert for the deflation of the credit bubble which means rate cuts and monetary stimulus will have been rendered useless The Rydex numbers were skewed more (bullish for the market) now than I recall them being in early April. Not true, here are the ratios of bull/bear assets for the two periods. The second number includes money market assets as bear assets. Today .20, .89 April 4 .34, 1.30 Was there a clear wave count then that implied a rally? It wasn't perfect but there was a count. BTW, the similarities of the Nasdaq daily chart to the 1929, 1987, and especially the 1946 BK on the DOW is pretty freaky. I put us in the equivalent of mid-August on this chart: sharelynx.net

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