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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace
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To: The Freep who wrote (6930)7/12/2001 7:36:49 AM
From: Clappy  Read Replies (1) of 209892
 
I'm just wondering what we might find different between now and early April that would imply we WON'T rally. . .

Here's two things I can think of:

1) VOLUME

It's going to take a lot of volume to push through all that resistance above us.
That comes from computerized buy programs kicking in. Mutual funds loading up. Panic buying.
I'm not sure that we've reached similar levels that trigger such buying. In the face of all this technical damage?
Especially during summer vacation. Where will the panic buying come from?
I don't panic as much while sitting on a beach holding a drink with a tiny umbrella in it. <g>

2) FED CUTS. In April we still had the unseen hopes for approx. 100 basis points in Fed cuts.
I don't think we have much more than 25-50 points left for Greenspan to throw onto the barely smoldering fire.

Now it's "wait and see" time. When will these cuts begin to show up on the balance sheets?
For the techs, when will we see those chip orders coming in? IF the SOX start to surprise we may see some stronger buying but until then, it's still wait and see.

Perhaps the houses/funds will try to provide some bait to catch some of that tax cut cash like they did in May to get some of the tax return money.
This only sets up one incredible short opportunity.
Rallies without volume don't stick.

Maybe the NDX gets it's ABC correction this next month or so but doubt it breaks any key resistance points above NDX 1900.

Now where is my beach chair?
Is this some sort of a new font I'm seeing on SI or do I have sun tan lotion in my eyes?

-WhileMyGuitarGentlyFreeps
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