Sal, some random thoughts:
I wrote a long reply and then my screen froze up. In summary, some of us longer term qcom folks are working on a rev model for the period of the next 2-4 years which should encompass 2.5g and the transition to 3g. There has been a fair amount of news in the last 6 months and so if we are making estimates they need to be altered now. After that is done, I think I will have a better answer for you than I have now.
It is much easier to argue that Nok will be a bigger beneficiary of 2.5 g than qcom, PLUS they will use their industry weight to slow adoption. If the ww economies stay weak, this will also slow things down. I have a position in Nok. Ericy is where most of the critical technology is coming from, from what I understand, but it is true that they can't be trusted to handle the business side, so i have no position in ericy although I am tempted.
The agreement with Nokia allows qcom to produce gsm chips now, and not pay royalties. Since they have zero presence in Europe as of today, they have lots of room to run. Also, my impression is that the Koreans are pushing back from w-cdma and moving toward cdma-2000 again, and pressing the speed of the transition again. But, as I said, we have a ton of issues that are in the air now on Qcom and 3-g timing, and it is just plain easier to see that nok will benefit from 2.5g, will shove the industry around a lot on the issue and is cheap at 18. |
