FWIW-- As a VLT holder of EMC, appx 10 yrs, I violated one of my principles and bought some Jan calls at what I regarded as a ridiculously low price. Generally, my experience with options is that I have been right abt 50% of the time while my broker always did well. In this case, my broker is my son, so it won't be as painful to be wrong.
I cannot imagine EMC being in the 20's in January. However, I could not imagine EMC falling below 50. I try to look at the LT picture and here's a company with proven technical leadership in an area that's growing. I am quite skeptical of TA, and think the market is neither in a predictable planetary rotation, or , like human behavior, that past performance predicts future performance. Future potential determines value, and EMC still looks hot to me. I try to have a LT teleological view of value. The rate of growth has slowed, but there has been growth. I don't have to remind threaders of the enormous decline in the price of shares, which, admittedly were high. If I'm wrong on this one, I'll have to reanalyze my way of looking at value. I feel very comfortable with the calls, but time will tell.
fred |
