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Technology Stocks : PCW - Pacific Century CyberWorks Limited

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To: ms.smartest.person who wrote (1614)7/12/2001 1:55:28 PM
From: ms.smartest.person  Read Replies (2) of 2248
 
CLSA Securities: Pacific Century CyberWorks (0008) - BUY - Suggested Price: HK$2.425

Source from CLSA Securities
05/07/01

Summary

B2C strategy - PCCW sacked 340 employees from its Internet operations in Hong Kong. It will integrate the ISP, iTV and the Netvigator portal - to be renamed NOW.com.hk - with the telecom operations to save costs. The management aiming to cap EBITDA loss of these Internet services to US$100m between 2002 and 2003 versus our forecast of US$239m.

We are a bit skeptical about the revenue potential of pay-per-view streaming video and a bit surprised that iTV is still alive, but the revenue-sharing model of the latter should help it improve the bottom line.

There is no announcement on staff retrenchment on its traditional telecom operations, but we believe this will happen in the near future.

We still maintain our earnings forecasts and target price (HK$3.06) for the time being until we see clear signs of successful implementation of its new strategy or the announcement of further cost reduction measures. While the budgeted cost savings on Internet services would boost the division valuation by 23%, the enhancement on our targeted price would be less than 2% to HK$3.10. Further upside has to come from additional cost cutting and new revenue streams.

The credit rating (Baal by Moody's & BBB by S&P) should help it refinance US$4.7bn of syndicated loans with long-term (10-year of longer maturity) bonds.

Table 1

Year end Dec
2000P
2001CL
2002CL
2003CL

Net profit (HK$ mn)
-6,907
3,215
3,752
4,082

EPS (HK$)
-0.107
0.147
0.171
0.187

EPS change (%)
-
-130.9
16.7
8.8

PEx (@HK$2.425)
-22.7
16.5
14.1
13.0

EV/EBITDA (x)
15.3
12.5
11.3
10.5

EV/Prop EBITDA (x)
10.7
9.3
8.6
8.2

Suggested Price: HK$2.425 (4/7/01)

Target Price: HK$3.06






Infocast Ltd.
Email: support@infocast.com.hk

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