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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: Lucretius who wrote (112314)	7/12/2001 2:10:53 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (3) of 436258

Earlie from Earlie: Back from an extended and somewhat different road trip. Herewith a few observations. - Truck traffic has fallen remarkably. It is now actually very discernible. Truckers are not in a good mood. Loads are just not available. Those huge tractor parking areas out on the North Texas plains are going to get bigger. Truck traffic is a superb indicator of what the economy is doing and where it is going. - PC business is simply the worst I have ever witnessed and hardly worth wasting a comment on. Unit sales down 20% and revenues have imploded. Business spending is virtually nil. Consumer buying continues to dry up. Inventories still massive across the distribution pipeline. How do we spell "total saturation"? Cell phone sales continue to dry up. Most places darned near giving them away. No way do we see any kind of a bounce in demand in this arena. Saturation rules. Semiland is inventory city. Sales suck and the warehouses are jammed. Supply situation just gets worse as few involved manufacturers are willing (or able?) to cut back. To me, this is the worst possible place to be invested "long" and it isn't going to improve until a bunch of the producers go bust or vacate. - Semi equipment suppliers are a joke at current prices as they have crushed order books and simply no possibility of consequential new sales until the current glut runs its course. Their sales cycle is also dreadfully long, so they are just entering a lengthy "death valley" scenario. - Take a look at the driveways of America as you cruise around this summer. I noticed that every fourth driveway has a car, SUV, recreational vehicle, boat, trailer or what-have-you out by the road with a "for sale" sign on it. It is a good indicator of Joe Five-Pack's worry list. Liquidity problems surfacing fast. Motel and hotel revs are off to a lousy start this year. Most managers talk openly about a recession environment in their industry. - Credit problems are also emerging fast now. Every business has a lengthening list of receivables and everybody is getting nervous about this. Some businesses are already cratering due to failed clients. This appears to be intensifying as it wasn't really a concern last year and is now a widespread worry. - Real estate problems are spreading. Not yet a wide-spread worry, but more patches of weakness showing up. As one might expect, where the lay-offs have been big, both consumer and commercial real estate pricing has softened. I have zero expertise here, so this is just an anecdotal observation. - Boat sales have hull rot this summer. The demand is being smashed by a burgeoning explosion of used gear coming on to the market. This is evident even in "wealth centers" such as Miami (which usually don't get hit hard in the early stages of a recession). - Aircraft seat load factors continue to fall. And this is peak load season. Look for lay-offs as well as cancelled plane sales this coming fall. I could go on at length, but unless one drives across the country with blinders on, the burgeoning signs of an approaching storm are everywhere apparent. Hello bulls. (g) Best, Earlie

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