Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 226.05

+1.3%

Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (49115)	7/12/2001 3:00:58 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) of 70976

Having your model based on numbers, is a necessary-but-not-sufficient requirement for success. "Gut feel" equals extrapolating the current sentiment into the future. Given the fact that flows of money into stock mutual funds (a proxy for the consensus "gut feel") always bottoms at market bottoms, and always peaks at market tops, it is hard to do worse than "gut feel", as a model for predicting the future. But the LTCM method came close.

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