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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory
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To: John Pitera who wrote (4268)7/12/2001 4:29:59 PM
From: Raymond Duray  Read Replies (2) of 33421
 
Hi John,

Thanks for the better data points on crude, heat and gasoline futures. I stand chastised for painting with too broad a brush... <bg> Seems to be a weakness of mine, as I try to overcome my Virgo instinct to drill down to too much detail.

I do think that Asian consumption is an important part of
the equation, as China and the Pac-Rim grow, they can
determine where marginal prices go.
Agreed and furthermore, it's been my observation of the crude oil market that a 1% shift in supply/demand balance generally results in a 50% swing in price. Seemed crazy to me when I first observed this, but that is the way spot markets work, after careful (for me) observation. I see us going into surplus for the foreseeable future. Thus, I'm not sanguine about the fundamental prospects for the equity patzer in the patch.

The other observation I'll make is, WRT your comment on heating oil and winter, that the single most important variant in price in the energy markets is weather. The spot and forward markets get manipulated ad nauseum by players trying to fool each other with their weather prediction data. I do love seeing the vulgarity of it all. I'm appalled that wiser heads let this nonsense go on all the time. BWDIK?

EOG? Why? Seems like we're only halfway through shoulder season and the AGA numbers from yesterday are pretty bearish. What's the attraction? I gotta wonder if'n yer tryin' to catch a fallin' knife..... <g>

-Ray
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