Beijing's Olympic Gold May Come at a High Price
Summary
Beijing, the frontrunner to win a July 13 vote to host the 2008
Summer Olympic Games, is counting on a successful bid to increase
its international prestige and boost economic investments. Yet
the attention may be a double-edged sword for the Chinese
government, restraining its ability to crack down on social and
political unrest while emboldening dissidents and foreign
governments.
Analysis
Beijing, likely to win an International Olympic Committee vote
July 13 to host the 2008 Summer Olympic Games, expects to gain
international prestige, greater economic investment, and a
nationalist symbol to rally the country's 1.2 billion citizens.
"There is a feeling that it would be good for the world and good
for China if they win," IOC vice president Kevan Gosper,
Australia's most senior IOC official, told the Associated Press.
Eight years ago, with the memories of Tiananmen Square still
fresh, the IOC passed on China, choosing to go to Sydney for the
2000 Games. Beijing led every round until the last, when Sydney
won by two votes. But a successful bid from China for the 2008
Games will bring increasing scrutiny of its respect for human
rights, forcing the image-conscious regime to limit its crackdown
on internal social unrest. But the government's restraint may not
last long. Dissidents inside China and foreign anti-government
forces, such as Taiwan, will be encouraged to challenge the
regime.
To prepare for the attention, China has been making deeper
structural changes in its security forces. Since the middle of
last year, China has established anti-riot squads to develop a
more effective, and non-lethal, method of countering growing
demonstrations and protests.
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The government emphasized the need for special training for the
squads, warning that ill-trained forces risk "escalating
conflicts by [using] inappropriate measures," according to a
Chinese public security official cited by the official Xinhua
News Agency.
China's government also changed the uniforms of Beijing's police
from military green to blue in late 2000, in a symbolic attempt
to reshape the image of public security.
However, such efforts do not reflect a softer stance by the
regime on internal social stability, or a greater tolerance for
anti-government activities. Rather, Beijing is, if anything, even
more concerned with containing social unrest. The government has
launched a series of crackdowns on corruption and organized
crime, and is targeting religious and ethnic groups considered a
threat to internal stability.
But the government must maintain an inviting climate for
potential foreign donors and investors; already 60 percent of its
Olympic bid budget comes from foreign corporations. But the
government's growing concern with image will require Beijing to
deal more delicately with internal social unrest than it has in
the past. For instance, the government recently allowed seven
North Korean refugees to leave China for South Korea, despite a
signed agreement with Pyongyang to return such refugees to North
Korea.
Beijing's restraint will encourage both internal and external
forces to step up efforts to discredit the Chinese government or
fight for more rights. It may also open the door for more
pressure from overseas interest groups - be they dissidents or
foreign governments such as Taiwan - to encourage anti-government
activities inside China.
The dissident movement is not limited to well-known religious
groups such as Falun Gong or pro-democracy elements; it has the
potential to spread across all sectors of society. From academics
and businessmen seeking more intellectual or economic freedom, to
unemployed factory workers and disgruntled farmers, the short-
term protection of international scrutiny may counter their fear
of government retribution.
These social forces will test both the regime's ability to keep
control and its tolerance for domestic opposition. If history is
any guide, when pressured for greater political freedom and
reform, Beijing's response is to ensure its own power regardless
of international opinion. As in the case of the Tiananmen Square
massacre, the government will delay retaliation to a degree in
the interest of image control, but if the anti-government
movement gets out of hand, the restraint is not likely to last.
___________________________________________________________________
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