Hi all; Back in October of last year, Jim Rockwell wrote that RMBS might get to $500 by this earnings report:
Rambus Get to $500 per share by July 2001?
Jim Rockwell, October 20, 2000
If the following events occur by July 2001, as I believe most of them will, (not necessarily in this order.) then in my opinion, it is possible for Rambus to be $500 per share.
By January 20, 2001
* Earnings .12 per share
...
By April 20, 2001
* Earnings .20 per share ...
* Pentium 4 starts to ship in large volumes (AMD starts losing market share to Intel.)
...
* Infineon settles ...
* Hyundai settles ...
* Infineon, Hyundai, and Micron start to ship Rambus memory.
* DDR PCs become available, but because of supply and demand, DDR memory prices are higher than Rambus memory. (Rambus also gets royalty on DDR.)
By July 20, 2001
* Earnings .35 per share (Increased royalties from P4 memory and new agreements with retroactive royalty.)
* Pentium 4 prices come down and it starts to enter the upper end of the mainstream desktop market.
* Rambus PC800 128MB memory declines to only $30 more than PC133 SDRAM and PC600 only $10 more.
* Micron loses lawsuit in Germany and can no longer ship memory to Germany.
* Micron settles and signs SDRAM/DDR royalty agreement with Rambus.
* At least two SDRAM memory controller chip companies sign royalty agreements with Rambus.
* Rambus announces long list of well-known manufacturers who must pay royalty to Rambus.
* Microsoft announces that their XBOX will use Rambus memory.
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The difference between this set of expectations and what actually happened is why RMBS is trading around $10 per share now instead of 50x higher.
-- Carl |
