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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

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To: stockman_scott who wrote (38920)7/13/2001 9:26:17 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (4) of 65232
 
so the economy deteriorates further, evidence jobless claims up 40k when a decrease was expected
last month we heard "worst has been seen" and it got worser
ok, so Microsoft obeyed the Govt orders
and that is great news
nice to see the Evil Empire of Shoddy Software toe the line
the economy needs them to be a solid citizen for once

nothing has changed in my view
layoffs are still increasing
world economies are still sliding backwards
consumer confidence is still low
corporate investments are still way down
no evidence of economic recovery
more evidence of risk, external to the USA
the Fed is still in a slight tightening mode (30-35 bpt above 3mo TBill)
tax cuts are set up to be rather puny

I still expect shockwaves to hit this summer among stocks
seeing relief rallies like yday ensures more shocks
the REALITY is not a story of recovery
the HOPE is recovery, and I hope it does also
yday news headlines are clear "MSFT ignites hope"
we have very little reality, and much hope
we are a hopeful society

look for a recovery to begin around Christmas
probably a false start then, followed by recovery next spring

with the near end of rate cuts, and no more MSFT big news,
what is there to prop up stocks ???
the next MSFT news will be damage liability
and TREBLE DAMAGES
our forefathers set up laws to triple the demonstrated losses
when handing out damage claims from antitrust violations
these are the most serious violations in our business world
they are tantamount to "corporate murder", and treated harshly

how will MSFT and other techs react to something like
"Netscape agrees to a $300M settlement with Microsoft"
if not Netscape, then any other from a list of 30 companies
the Appellate Court did not change ANY findings of antitrust violations
so next up will be settled remedies
or more court challenges to demonstrate damage numbers
I believe the list of damaged companies is 30 long
good news is out now, next is bad for MSFT

we will see
/ Jim
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