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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (5802)7/13/2001 11:02:20 AM
From: Ilaine  Read Replies (3) of 74559
 
>>IOC Awards '08 Olympics to Beijing

Associated Press
Friday, July 13, 2001; 10:23 AM

MOSCOW –– Beijing was awarded the 2008 Olympics on Friday, winning the games for the world's most populous country
for the first time.

The International Olympic Committee picked China over rival bids from Toronto; Paris; Istanbul, Turkey; and Osaka, Japan.

Beijing won on the second round of a secret ballot by receiving 56 votes, setting off a flag-waving celebration of tens of
thousands of people in the Chinese capital.

Toronto got 22 votes, Paris 18 and Istanbul nine. Osaka was eliminated in the first round of voting, with six votes.

Despite criticism of China's human rights record, Beijing was the front-runner throughout the race. IOC members clearly
believed that the Olympics will open China to the world, improve the human rights situation and speed social and economic
reforms.<<

washingtonpost.com

I can't help thinking about the 1936 Berlin Olympics . . . .

(Hi Jay - I finally finished my paper on the German recovery from the Great Depression, 1932-1938. Time marches on - we'll get the take-home final a week from Monday. Such are the vicissitudes of summer school.

I am more convinced than ever that deliberately pursuing deflationary measures in a deflationary recession (redundant?) is suicide - counter-cyclical measures work, but they take time, a long time, like maybe a year.

Time to think about cutting prices, cutting costs. There's a maxim in economics - prices are sticky downwards - I think one reason is that while we still have everything we need, we aren't motivated to cut prices - we being humans, Homo Economus.

A strong dollar means the US consumer buys more foreign goods because they are relatively cheaper. Hell, even if the dollar was weak, foreign goods would still be cheaper because US overhead is so damned high* - despite the fact that real wages haven't increased in a while, despite full employment. If the dollar slips, you guys are going to have to cut costs to keep selling to us.

Europe is stagnating for a reason few suspect - the population is aging. Low birth rates will do that. US is aging slower because of more open immigration policies, but we need to work harder at integrating Latinos into the entrepreneurial economy (the Asians do just fine). Those babies grow up into workers - the old farts don't produce, just consume, ever slower. I don't believe the Club of Rome got anything right.)

*We need to figure out how to cut overhead. Taking out a few layers between the producer and the consumer is a good idea - but those guys in the middle are going to have to find new jobs.
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