[ NG currently down .17, over 5% ]
whodathunkit ?
Actually d'bum... back on Dec 30 at XNG 272 & $8-$10 Nat Gas... some here did point to the unsustainble perception that there was a guaranteed, new paradigm - multi-year Energy Crisis cycle here. We called an exit from the Nat Gas story within 12 hours of the actual XNG index top and even began trading short.
OSX-wise; on the last rally to 135 resistance we were the lone internet voice saying - we'll take it & that the next bottom may no longer be worth playing for a trading range game; as that "game" allways ends, sooner, or later - when, not if & the supply builds signaled "passing" on this one on any portfolio weighted basis. Throw a few calls at a DCB ? - sure. Play $2/$3 long/short 2-3 day moves ? - sure.
But, if you didn't take literally "ALL" the money off the table allready - you weren't understanding the cyclical component to the sector and you weren't heeding the single most important FUNDAMENTAL in the oilpatch (both early & late cycle) - that being SUPPLY TRENDS.
There was no New Paradigm-Energy Crisis... there was a degregulation crisis in California and there was naturally a lag in drilling recovery given the 1998 collapse in cap ex; to recover supply/demand equilibrium.
Well now we've not only got equilibrium, but collapsing global oil demand due to an unprecedented global economic slowdown.
My point is not one of braggadocio, or necessarially to rub the noses of the chihuhua's into rolling over once again on this cycle's meltdown; but merely to point out how "few" got it... how few understood the over-riding "cyclical" component to trading this sector... how few learned from history... how few used fear & respect, to over-ride greed and how few got it right.
Sadly; human behavior & emotion - the classic "madness of crowds" will show us the same mistakes, the same failures & the same pattern of individual investors on the next cycle... if you want to feel real pity; go to the Yahoo RIG thread (or any Yahoo Oilpatch thread for that matter) & read mlcarters emotional tirade agains Dain Rauscher for downgrading the Oil stocks for example and see, smell & feel the pathetic emotionalsim & all the wrong thought -processes that the vast majority of individual investors have in this sector... they're literally clueless.
And SI isn't any better. This thread split for one reason - that a very small minority refused to put up with the "fish stories & bullshitting" and kept pounding the drum on the CYCLICAL component to the patch, on getting out at the top and sounding the Bear alarm... no one wanted to hear it... we were all wrong, moron's, shorts trying to manipulate, or scare people etc... same ole song & dance... but, look how "few" - how very few; across the entire Oilpatch iNet horizon got it right.... look at how few stayed here on message and are sitting on a pile of cash & haven't given it all back.
Denial isn't a river in Egypt and these aint Growth Stocks ~
Outta here for the morning - ciao~ |
