O.K. JRI... Finally made it over, but don't have Tradestation ready to download charts yet, but hope to soon.
The count I see goes as follows: From the 9/1/00 high, the SPX entered a large scale correction which is correcting the impulse move from 1982's lows up to the Sep 2000 high. From that 9/1/00 high, we should see a zig-zag ABC corrective since the prior supercycle corrective (wave 2 from 66-82) was a flat. This correction (labeled wave 4) from the 9/1/00 highs is 1 degree smaller than the Grand Supercycle correction from (29-47), but it is similar in that it was proceeded by an unprecedented mania bubble, and is a zig-zag corrective where the A wave pops the bubble and sets the extreme price low of the correction. The complete ABC correction should be relatively quick vs. the grueling 66-82 flat, finishing up in 3 to 4 years.
Within this wave A off the 9/1/00 peak, wave 1 of A completed on the 10/18/00 low, wave 2 of A on the 12/11/00 high (a flat), 3 of A on the 3/22/01 low, and 4 of A on the 5/22/01 high (a zig-zag, with a of 4 ending on the 3/27 high). Since that 5/22 high, we've been in wave 5 of A, and a clear 3 waves were etched out into the 6/15 lows. It looked as though this was the standard first 3 waves of 5 of A, followed by the abc expanded flat corrective into the 7/2 high, then followed by the wave 5 of 5 melt into this week's lows. The rally we've seen since signifies a bottom, but the move lower on the spx did not fulfill the minimum move lower for this 5 of A move down off the 5/22 highs, which needs to retrace at a minimum 70% back down to the 3/22 lows, which would require a minimum of 1151 to be seen before the 5th wave of A and thus A itself can be considered complete.
Wave 5's often complete in ending diagonals, and considering action since the 5/22 peak, the best count has the first 3 waves off the 5/22 high into the 6/15 low as the first ABC of an ending diagonal,thereby making that 6/15 low wave 1 of 5. The abc flat into the 7/2 high I now view as wave a of 2 of 5, and the 3 wave decline into 7/11's low b of 2 of 5, and since Wednesday's low, a c of 2 of 5 rally is in operation.
So I'm looking for a 5 wave c of 2 of 5 rally to complete, and THEN we begin wave 3 of 5 down. That will be the one to hit hard. Now... To nail the top of this 5 waver off Wednesday's lows... Looks like 1 of 5 ended Wed pm, 2 of 5 Wed pm, 3 of 5 Thurs am, 4 of 5 Thurs around 2:15 pm, 1 of 5 of 5 Thurs 3:30pm, 2 of 5 of 5 today @ 10:10am, 1 of 3 of 5 of 5 today @ 10:40am, 2 of 3 of 5 of 5 today @ 11:30am, 1 of 3 of 3 of 5 of 5 today @ noon, 2 of 3 of 3 of 5 of 5 @ 12:20pm, 3 of 3 of 3 of 5 of 5 @ 12:40pm, 4 of 3 of 3 of 5 of 5 @ 12:50pm, 5 of 3 of 3 of 5 of 5 @ 1:20pm, 4 of 3 of 5 of 5 @ 2:20pm, and 5 of 3 of 5 of 5 @ 3:15pm. We're now in the 4 of 5 of 5 plunge at this time, which could sell back down to the yesterday's 3:30pm high before finding support, then one last rally, that being 5 of 5 of 5. Should be short in duration, sharp & swift, and will be an important event wavewise, as it will complete the wave 2 consolidation that began from the 6/15 lows. I don't know how high they may try to run that wave on Monday, but it must retrace a minimum 70% of the move lower off today's 3:15pm high.
Wave 3 down should be a real BLAST!! -g-
Does that entire count EXACTLY match yours and Alien's wave count? -g- |
