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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: gdichaz who wrote (44387)7/13/2001 9:00:35 PM
From: Mike Buckley  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
Cha2,

It is actually very simple.

Rarely is anything of any importance simple. I'm highly skeptical when I'm told something is very simple.

But to assume there is the slightest correlation between China then and China now is, not to put too fine a point on it, stupid.

First, no correlation was made. (It may or may not have been made in the piece Ethan referenced, but since he didn't mention it and you and I haven't read it, there's no reason for you to assume the correlation was made.)

Second, the correlation to be made isn't just about China. It's about the western approach to China. If westerners of today aren't any better at approaching China of today than westerners of yesterday were about approaching China of yesterday, then current-day westerners won't be successful as they would like to be regardless of how much China has changed.

Third, the issue isn't about the amount of success westerners had or will have in China. The issue is about the amount of success relative to the expectation. As an example, I have the impression that almost everyone in this folder following Qualcomm expected a Nokia agreement no later than last year. Why? I dunno, but I suspect that it had more to do with the hope that it would happen rather than the reasons it might or might not happen. Similarly, if that sort of illogical approach is used by westerners as the attempt to penetrate China, it's almost inevitable that the expectation will far exceed the reality.

--Mike Buckley
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