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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 226.19

-1.8%

Dec 12 9:30 AM EST

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To: H James Morris who wrote (128313)	7/14/2001 1:35:09 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (2) of 164684

HJ -- lets go one by one: (1) Consumer spending keeps recession away. -- unemployment is rising and is likely to keep on rising over the next year. Consumers did not experience the plunge in business experienced by the capital goods sector -- until now. (2) Margin debt fell 2.3% in june after a 4.3% spike in May. -- this is a good sign. (3) The total value of US stocks was little changed at $15.66 trillion, down $15.84 trillion in May. -- this is part of the denial I am talking about -- prices are too high and have not come down enough. (4) Falling energy prices,lower interest rates and tax rebate checks are expected to lift the economy in the 2nd half of this year. -- energy is the best news of all. TBut the tax cut is to the economy what a chocolate bar is to good nutrition -- five minutes of "feel good" and then a pimple. (5) Yesterdays report showed wholesale prices had the biggest drop in more than 2 years. -- again, signs of a slowing economy. Not the basis for a robust market. If anything, it is a sign of a global slowdown. (6) The US will not bail out Argentina. -- Argentina might not matter in the larger scheme of things. But to ignore how thin the wallpaper is on the Hollywood set the Abbey Cohen appears on to say "we expect a strong recovery" is to be in denial. Economic recovery is a bet, and might not is unlikely to arrive on the bull's schedule. For many technology industries, it is not clear that the current partticpants will weather the storm. Now the dull spot. (1)Small-business owners as a group expect the US economy to languish during the 2nd half of this year, with growth below potential, unemployment on the rise and inflation pressures muted. History shows small business owners are usually right. -- I was unaware of small business sentiment. We have Glenn to poll on that issue and he is advising caution on expectations of an improvement in the economy any time soon.

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