Dougy Sanders, I think it will be ENERGY
we have begun to witness the birth pangs of the Era of Shortage
rolling blackouts, even blackouts during baseball games, $35/bbl oil, $2/gal gasoline, doubled electric bills, tripled natural gas bills, $1000/yr water bills
I expect the next 3 years to be highlighted by weird new forces
and weird new dynamics
and openly discussed hatred of Arabs and Oil Barons
and considerable internal squabbling
e.g. planned seizure of electric producer windfall profits
soon I expect to hear of massive governmental energy programs
I dont mean subsidies to the poor
I mean massive multi$B research grants, partnerships, gauranteed sales, tax breaks to businesses and residences, utility sponsored conversions, etc
the works !!!
the theme will be Energy Indpendence and Progress into New Millennium
the national effort will unleash huge innovation forces
and create new wealth
by 2015, the Arabs and OPEC will me muted
they can go back to their marble-studded cities in the desert
and observe them as museum pieces
if not 2015, then 2020 for absolute certain
hybrid cars, fuel cells in business, renewable energy (solar panels, cool batteries, windmills, ocean wave generators), exploration on govt lands, relaxation of envmtal standards, tax incentives for production
you name it, we will push it
ANYTHING TO GET AWAY FROM THE $40 BARREL OF OIL
the national program is so certain in my mind by 2003
and the rolling blackouts that I expect will worsen, not improve, and soon
complacency is an American Spoiled Brat trait
we can talk about technology overcoming demand
about how it will circumvent inflation
but I think we are gonna fight a losing battle
and inflation will rise to baseline 4-6% by 2003
when the next economic expansion phase takes hold
and higher energy costs are passed along everywhere
heck, I just read in Pitt how Chili's the restaurant now charges 50 cents per order for energy surcharge
that is a new tactic that could become widespread quickly
I also expect the next expansion to see the major world economies UNLOCKED from the Y2K unison maestro conductor wand
to have at least one continent out of synch will actually serve beneficially soon
it will be interesting to watch the rich & poor clash
and the new & old technology clash
and the established & subsidized clash
just imagine $40/bbl oil, it is coming
and high profile blackouts, it is coming worse
the new themes in the next 9-18 months imho:
DEBT, ENERGY
we have heard only half of the debt story
it will be a colossal ball & chain in the recovery
from both vendor and consumer perspective
another year before that debt diarrhea is discharged
and then only partially
/ jim |
