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Thanks Bcrafty
Why do we bother with TA and Elliott? Fundamental analysis is a waste of time for getting into and out of a position. One may have a strong notion that a market or an instrument should run a certain direction, but without TA and/or Elliott, you will be just guessing at entries and exits. TA and Elliott answer two questions:
1) Risk: Is this is high probability place to buy/sell this instrument. The simplest example of this is buying at support or selling at resistance.
2) <Reward: Is there a high probability that my proposed position will run well in my direction. For example, does the current pattern suggest a strong move and is there a lack of strong resistance in the direction of my trade?
Technical analysis can not predict future market direction. It's strength lies in identifying setups that offer a high probability of success. Anybody who does not believe this is wasting their time and money. Anybody who wants to argue this with me is wasting my time.
Message 16075095
This guy says more eloquently what I've been trying to say since day 1. You find a stock you like. For me that is through FA methods. Then you use TA to find an entry point.
Since TA is no guarantee of future market direction it would be within the realm of reasonableness to include other factors to maximize your investment timing and choice.
AND THIS
Bernie Schaeffer: Microsoft Manufactures a Tech Rally
By Bernie Schaeffer
7/12/2001 9:14 AM ET
Thanks Fly
The expression "give the devil his due" is often appropriate in the world of trading. This means we must develop a healthy respect for the forces that may be driving the market against our position, for two reasons. First, because they may in fact prove to be "right." And second, regardless of whether they're right, they can wreak havoc with our trading performance over the short term.
The immediate reaction of the market to the May 15 and June 27 Fed rate cuts was neutral to slightly negative. But in each case, the market rallied sharply the next day. Are there forces that wished to see a market liftoff in response to these Fed moves that were dissatisfied with the market's initial reaction? Are you kidding? How about all the big Wall Street firms, all the big banks, as well as the Fed itself? Were these powers at work manufacturing a rally? I don't know, but note that each of these rallies had little follow-through and proved to be shorting opportunities for the nimble trader.
schaeffersresearch.com
Seems like this guy is pounding an Iowa theme that external events can affect your position. Seems smart to me to factor those events in.
Sorry Antiquities for still talking about TA.
Bring us some new material and we'll debate that too.
In the limelight again.
Iowaman |
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