John- Here's where I could see both scenarios somewhat reconciling:
This week would be a good one to burn off Rydex cash. Technically, we can still get to the 2125 (or even a bit higher, as long as no significant break of downtrend line off highs). I also like using this week to drive daily stochastics up into overbought territory or close (hopefully, 5 trading days w/net +40/50 would do that)...
(Down scenario) Believe me, BELIEVE ME...i hear ya'....I am acutely aware of too much complacency indicators, lower volumes on these rally attempts, etc....I want to believe <G> But that daily stochastic (both SnP/Naz), and Rydex do scare me here (at least a little)..
One other thought (if it wasn't already obvious): Wouldn't the perfect "pull in all the suckers rally" be one that starts this way.....wouldn't a phony rally up to 2500 or so be the perfect way to start the BK retest (for you and I know, on the break of 2325, the bullishness would go simply to the moon...I have no doubts we would be seeing record volume)..
Such a rally, btw, could get us into late August (just in time for warning season), get the weeklies/dailies and everything else overbought (like in late Jan., mid-May), and get those all-time sentiment level highs.....our silly, silly C... |
