Actually Swami, The 4th wave of the Bear pattern on Nasdaq was finished last Friday. The 3rd ended April 4th and since then we have been making the 4th . The 4th Wave always creates confusion as to wether we are now in a Bull pattern or still in a Bear Pattern. I have always targeted end of june to first week of July for the end of the the 4th Wave top. Just like my target of end of march for the 3 wave low,(as you can recall on mirc) i was one week too early , and so now in July , It turns out I may have been 1 week too early again.
So now we are about to begin the 5th wave down of a Bear wave count which should bring us down below 1000. This is also when we set lows in sentiment towards stocks.
We are currently in the beginnings of the worst quarter of the year. This one begins July 1st and ends Sept 30 . The summer months are never the strongest due to seasonal factors and holiday schedules. That also is a reason that Sept- October tend to be weak months for stocks as companies begin to report . It is apparent that more and more people are noticing this trend and are planning to exit earlier as was evidient in June. I fully expected the end of June and early July to be much stronger but the selllers were in full force beginning May 22 and were not waiting for the eventual pop to come later for more profits, they wanted out and never came back to play last week (or at least not to the same extent). So I also fully understand were Nicholas is coming from. His call for a nasty drop in July seems plausible given that most understand a drop in the fall is almost a certainty so they have all made plans to exit on any weaness. Fridays close was lower than its peak and looked very weak except for some last minute short covering or chart painting. I doubt seriously if we get that same kind of positive atmosphere next week which is why i will be playing it very tight and will not for any reason hold any daytrades overnight .
I believe Bill Carrigan is wrong in his count and that the markets have much lower to go before we can call the 5th over , in my books it only just begun.
And as for astrology, it has been used for many centuries by many famous people and the more i understand it the more it is evident that there are correlations between the stars and the markets. The markets are strictly a read on peoples psychology of that particular stock in that moment of time. Are they bullish? and they worried? are they stressed in which case they may be spooked easily and sell. So on ans so forth. You can't tell me that the markets are based on Fundamentals . The markets are a mood sentiment read only.
Astrology is a read on future mood patterns that may affect people. We all know that a Full moon causes people to think irrationally 2 days before and 2 days after. If any of you work in retail , you will know what I mean, the crazies come out on those days, and if you are in sales , you tend to come home and tell the spouse about the crazy sales call you had that day . Fisherman know about the moon cycle and how it affect the fish , best times to fish are 2 days before and 2 days after a full moon, as fish become more aggresive . The ocean Tides are also affected by a full moon due to the gravitational pull of the moon . Humans consist mainly of water , and have been found that the moon exerts the same kind of force on us and creates an imbalance in our brains which causes us to react more aggressively as a full moon approches. Ask any Policeman about the Domestic altercations and Bar fight they must attend on Full moons.
Astrology goes even further and lays out a map of the land based on a starting point and all of the Planets, Sun, moon, astrological signs and were they align up at a particular point in time. Some combinations create a very optimistic mood changing effect like last Wednesday and Thursdays Mercury Jupiter Allignment . Msft and GE came out with some tiny good news and the markets ran with that and closed up strongly. The mood pattern Jupiter Mercury was to react positively to positive news and that they did. Everyday that you live, different mood patterns are having an effect on how you handle things and your outlook on life. You may read your horoscope in the paper and find that it has an uncaany sense of what is going on but because it is a generalized horospope for each sign, it is not as accurate as it could be. Each individual has a chart that begins the minute they are born and is like DNA, no 2 people have the same chart.
I have been looking into this since late January and have used it as another tool in my arsenal . Bottom line, it is not something that will give you all the answers , but like Technical analysis, used effectively, it can improve ones profit making.
Vitalsigns |
