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Non-Tech : QQQ - Nasdaq 100 Trust
QQQ 611.67-1.9%Nov 6 4:00 PM EST
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To: Michael Sphar who wrote (594)7/15/2001 5:40:08 PM
From: HerbVic  Read Replies (1) of 840
 
QQQ is in a shallow declining sawtooth, indicating overall lack of conviction either way, but with overriding bearishness. Funny though, if you look at the 30 min. chart below, there was a gap-down followed 6 days later by a gap-up. The gap-up is somewhat stronger than the gap-down indicating a potential reversal of the overriding bearishness to an overriding bullishness. Of course, these tea leaves can say many things depending on the perspective slant of the reader.
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But, it looks like a reversal of a sawtooth decline pattern is in place for now, with 40 establishing the new bottom. Without conviction though, the sawtooth pattern will likely continue, and QQQ will likely revisit 40 again before finally climbing the wall of worry to set higher highs than was established following April's Bear market flush. My guess (and guess is all it is): somewhere mid to late August for the retest of lows. End of September & into October for a slingshot into new highs (>53)

My bearish scenario goes more like this: We see QQQ retest 50 something over the next couple of weeks. Then decline into another waiting morass only to see warning lights going off again ahead of October's ER period. Tax loss selling then resumes as the concern mounts that there may be a considerable wait for the inevitable recovery. That is when you may see real fear return.

HerbVic
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