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Strategies & Market Trends : MP - Market Pulse

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To: HairBall who started this subject	7/15/2001 10:02:17 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) of 1328

Sunday Evening Charts... Sorry, I am running a little late, but one of the charts would not upload, it just kept corrupting. They all viewed fine before this post. I hope they stay that way...<g> I removed many of my shorter-term trend lines from my charts to get a fresh look over the weekend to see if I could discern anything new. Sometimes this is a worthwhile process sometimes not. COMPX (NASDAQ Comp) Charts... This index is clearly trading down in a falling wedge originating from the 5/22 high. If this chart resolved per the norm, that would suggest an eventual break above the resistance line. Per my previous Sunday update I was looking for my next possible turn date 7/9 to provide a low. If the price action followed through from Friday’s dramatic decline I expected the 4/17-18 gap-up may fill. However, I ignoring my shorter-term intraday technicals which were all in the oversold range. On Monday the price action bottomed in the opening 15-min bar in the area of the upper boundary of the 4/17-18 gap-up. The price action of the bounce revealed fairly quickly that it was a bearish consolidation in the form of a rising wedge pattern. This suggested more down to come and that my next turn date would come into play 7/12 (+/- one trading day) for a low. Once the wedge broke to the norm on the 10th the dramatic sell off that followed quickly pulled my intraday indicators back into the oversold area as a bottom was placed in the area of the lower boundary of the 4/17-18 gap-up as the gap was filled. My initial target for 7/9 was reached and a low established with my next possible turn date coming into play being 7/19 for a high. However with the dramatic gap-up on Thursday 7/12 followed by an extension rally into early afternoon Friday the rally moved up quicker than expected in the form of an expanding triangle. It found resistance as it tested the 4/4 rising SRL (gray line on both charts) just a few points below my targeted max high for 7/19 (2120). I posted publicly a few high-risk short position trades with in a few minutes of the peak. I am expecting a pullback but since the QQQ closed Friday just a little above the current max-pain target I am not sure exactly how this is going to play out into my next possible turn date 7/19 and July's options expiry. Speculating going forward is that the COMPX will drop back to test the 7/11-12 gap-up and then rally back into expiry setting a lower high in the area of 2050-2060. My next possible turn date "for now" is still 8/7 and is still target as a low, but both could change as the price action unfolds and I take a look at possible targets generated from the 7/11 pivot. My WOW “End of Day” – COMPX (NASDAQ Comp) Daily Semi-log Chart My QCharts “Intraday” – COMPX (NASDAQ Comp) 65-Min Semi-log Chart My Charts can be viewed at the link below. Click on Chart 7 for the WOW chart and chart 8 for the QChart lgscharts.homestead.com NYA (NYSE Comp) Charts… The NYA is trading in a falling channel originating from the 5/22 high. You might notice the 50-day SMA roll as it tagged the 200-day SMA which is still in decline. From the low placed on 7/11, from the secondary low on 7/11 the price action rallied in the form of a rising wedge. As the price action on Friday tested the 61.8% retrace area (616.3) of the 7/2 move down into 7/11 my intraday technical continued to leg into the overbought range. The wedge broke to the norm late Friday and I expect at least a partial retrace of the formation. My WOW “End of Day” – NYA (NYSE Comp) Daily Semi-log Chart Note: The volume numbers for the last few days are wrong. This has slightly impacted my formulas for this chart. My QCharts “Intraday” – NYA (NYSE Comp) 65-Min Semi-log Chart My Charts can be viewed at the link below. Click on Chart 1 for the WOW chart and chart 2 for the QChart lgscharts.homestead.com Regards, LG Disclaimer: The above is my opinion only and I reserve the right to be wrong. An overall market expectation is just that and should not be used in exclusion of the evaluation of individual equities or other investment instruments. Do not base any investment decision solely on any one person's views or analysis. Do your own research and take responsibility for your investment decisions.

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