Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 214.99

0.0%

Dec 26 9:30 AM EST

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To: kapkan4u who wrote (47899)	7/16/2001 7:46:37 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (1) of 275872

<900MHz Durons are $57 on PriceWatch. OEMs are probably getting them for $40 or less. > I doubt if there is that kind of difference in OEM pricing. I can see a lot of second tier (or even first tier OEMs) who will start a buy-resell business if the going is so good. I have been using a 15% discount to PriceWatch as the OEM pricing. Does anyone on the thread have good visibility on OEM/PriceWatch differential? <ML's estimate of $50 to $55 Athlon+Duron OEM ASP sounds about right to me in Q3. > Why quote ML? Is there much that Joe Osha has gotten right of late? I am hard pressed to think of any good research that has come out of ML in a long time. <The dealer ASPs should be around $90 with the OEM+dealer average in the low $60s.> From my experience this kind of ASP differential is impossible to maintain. OEMs and brokers will sell product in the open market to make sure the delta isn't anywhere close to this. I personally know of semiconductor brokers (not CPU ones unfortunately) who do all kind of weird things to capture 5 or 10 point difference. <What is your estimate for Q3?> I don't have any. I, however, do find flat ASPs quite possible given 5-10% mobile mix (assuming lack of any real competition from Brookdale until the back to school refresh is over). If Brookdale-based systems ship in volume by August then there is a real possibility of ASP declines. By the way, I saw no response from you on Jerry's comments about Q2 Athlon/Duron ASPs/Units mix. Do you find anything fundamentally wrong with the $50 Duron ASP in Q2? If not, I am hard pressed to understand where this ASP decline in Q3 will come from. Another sanity check may be from K6-2 pricing. What was the lowest K6-2 ASP?

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