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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: rolatzi who wrote (92371)7/16/2001 10:24:35 PM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
All true, but keep in mind that fossil fuel replacement has been developing for decades already. For example, insulation.

Japan is near a declining population level or already there.

Here is a chart [I suppose it's accurate enough].
xist.org showing some estimates for 2050.

From that chart, it seems that populations overall will dramatically increase [but I can't see how Bangladesh can get from 120 million to 220 million by 2050 - they won't fit in and something will happen before that happens!]. What a mess that chart paints for the poor, heavily populated places. The wealthy world's populations are disappearing while the poor burgeon...hmmmm, will rethink... gee, 2.2billion in 'old India' including Pakistan, Bangladesh and India. Wow! That's a lot. They'll buy a lot of CDMA phones!

AIDS in Africa seems a catastrophe in progress so I wonder if Nigeria will really go from 115m to 340m by 2050. I doubt it. The economic base for Africa and the Indian region is not too good. I wonder if they'll get through to 2050 without mayhem cutting numbers [Europe had some serious reductions sometimes...war, pestilence].

As you say, if all the world wanted to drive SUVs and fly in 747s and live in big hot/cool houses, there would be a lot of oil gone. But an SUV isn't the only way to live and the road crowds would be impossible in most cities [since roading such as the USA developed will never be built].

There are other options, from photovolatics to biomass, nuclear to coal and Orinoco crudes.

Mq
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