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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: isopatch who wrote (92374)7/16/2001 11:14:02 PM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
<If you want to be a futurist and demographer? That's fine. ...
But, that's not MY thing. I'm a professional investor. Only interested in facts and theories up to the point that I can make a nice living every year. >

Me too. But I need to have an idea of how many CDMA phones will sell in 20 years time because the share price of QUALCOMM in 2010 will depend on what it looks like 10 years from then. Beating the markets is the name of the game and knowing what lies ahead is the joker in the pack. If I know that in 2010, there will be billions clamouring for CDMA, I'll be loaded! So I buy heaps of New Paradigm stocks now and wait for the deluge of demand.

I know oil is an anachronism which 6 billion or 10 billion people won't be using in any quantity. But they can all use electronics made of sand, plastic and software. They'll want to too. Check out China as an example of what gets bought when the poor climb out of the hole.

Royalties from 4 billion people in 2020 will be a lot different from royalties from 6 billion. I like to keep an eye on the flock to make sure there will be plenty of subscribers.

At $15 a barrel, a life like the oil-consuming world is already out of reach for the poor countries. Maybe prices could rise to $25 or $30 a barrel, but at those prices, they'll be burning fermented sugar beet or using photovoltaics rather than fossil fuels. So will everywhere else. Oil is already at the upper limit of long-run pricing and will fall as markets always do in the up and down way of life we know.

Mq
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