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Technology Stocks : The *NEW* Frank Coluccio Technology Forum

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To: ftth who started this subject	7/17/2001 1:08:10 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (3) of 46821

ON HIGH FIBER DIET Competitors build long haul networks because long distance is not subject to the same level of regulation of local access. The imbalance between fiber constructed and traffic generated is due the fact that ILECs sabotaged the Telecom Act of 1996. They killed every CLEC in site. Since the demand for bandwidth didn't materialize, the long distance carriers that build long haul networks are dying too. MNFX, 360Networks etc. The only solution for the situation would be the FCC to break-up the ILECs. Creating wirecos who whose assets would be the cable plant only. Form the MDF to RJ11 jack at the customers. Then they could sell to whomever needed access to the customers. The problem is that the ILECs have to much power in Washington corridors and they will fight any interference in the status quo. DO WE NEED BROADBAND? Throttled down to 10Mbit/s at the LAN level (thanks FAC!) IT administrators could give every user 100Mbit/s. (thanks again!) But the workplace doesn't need 100Mbit/s (perhaps a very few do!) We can infer that if at the work place almost nobody need broadband. Which means that very few people at home would need broadband. So why this hoopla about the need for broadband when broadband is a solution looking for a problem? DO WE HAVE TRAFFIC GROWTH? IF WE HAVE IS THERE MONEY TO BE MADE? Traffic was growing at virus speed in the bubble years. Vendors were giving access away in order to sell their wares. More people were hooking up to TW. (TW means T ime W aster) Now you see people hooking free of charge to TW, generating traffic. Operators invest in backbone to carry this traffic which is only there because its origin was free of charge. Now you would expect that the MNFX and 360Networks of this world would not have gone belly up? THE MBA vs. THE ENGINEERS We read in the past ten years of liberalization of the telecoms market that investment decisions were being made by business people and no longer by engineers. The fight was to get out of the way the engineering mentality that had pervaded telecoms. So an MBA who could spell telephone would be the ones in charge. People trained in the engineering profession were burning the midnight oil to honing their business skills. Judging by the sea of red ink, companies going belly up, destruction of capital, stock market crashing, the guys doing the business plans didn't do that well. CONTENT IS NOT FREE Network owners want content to be free. Content providers want bandwidth to be free. Obviously this is not an workable proposition. Thus much of the content to run over those networks never materialized. Content is very integrated industry. Film distributors contribute to the financing of films to get rights to distribute them. To break their business model proved to be very much difficult. Most of the content over those networks are made by 'prosumers' people that are at the same time producers and consumers. Like all the digital photos that people send over the Internet. THE KILLER APPS The killer is sex. The second killer app is gambling. Boy, nothing like a holiday in Finland to throtle El mat up!!!

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