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Technology Stocks : INTEL TRADER

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To: Berney who wrote (10004)	7/17/2001 9:26:44 AM
From: John Harton	Read Replies (1) of 11051

Berney & Dudes...A little fun with OEX #s On the OEX daily it strikes me how neatly the 601 low of 7-11 fills the third point on the bottom rising trend line formed by lows of 3-22 and 4-4. A fourth point on the line would be established by a 608 low on 7-20(GG). This got me thinking to project this line out for a full year. We're rising at a rate of ~.698 points per trading day, and with ~250 trading days per year that puts us oex ~723 on 3-22-02. An increase of over 30% from 548 low of 3-22-02. Clearly, the market is overheating <GGGG>. Now lets have a little fun with a 5 year look back at MARCH OEX lows. 97- oex 368 98- oex 491 99- oex 605 00- oex 727 01- oex 548 Assuming a historical 11% annual return starting at oex 368 in 97, we should have arrived at oex ~560 MARCH 01---not too far from 548 at all! Another 11% from there puts us at ~621 on MAR 02, which coincidentally is where we are NOW. So I guess we're already done this year, time to go to cash for that extra 3-5 % return and wait til Mar 02 to get back on board. (^_^) Seriously though, I'm looking for gains in GOLD, AMD puts, and possibly long WMT / retail scalp plays. Looking also to fade whichever way QQQ goes on exp-day. MER, GS looking ill. BWDIK Best Regards -John

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