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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

SPY 691.72

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Jan 16 4:00 PM EST

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To: LemonHead who wrote (33359)	7/17/2001 9:38:45 AM
From: j g cordes	Read Replies (1) of 69833

In my opinion its premature for a long position in any semi stock. The reason is the slowdown in sales of equipment, services, software, and hardware first seen in the US is spreading to Europe and Asia. Many analysts presumed strength in these markets, but its not going to happen in my opinion, not this quarter.. strength will first have to show in our makets THEN spread out to re-strengthen world markets. Its a deep cycle.. and we're still heading down. Yes, there will be tradeable moments, one to three week runs.. when optimistic money drives up stock prices, but none of these rallies will be significant until the US consumer gets bored with the old toys and buys new ones... Just before that's evident will be the time to buy. Then, with greatly reduced earnings expectations and better year over year comparisons and strong survivors.. stocks will have plenty of power, then get a double kick as the rest of the world comes on line again. Jim

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