Chip equipment makers foresee steep decline in sales
By MATTHEW FORDAHL, Associated Press
SAN FRANCISCO (July 16, 4:30 p.m. CDT) - The leading makers of semiconductor equipment expect industry sales to fall off 35 percent
in 2001 from the record $47.7 billion shipped in the previous year, according to a survey released Monday.
Despite the sharp decline, the industry expects to post its second-highest year for revenues - a total of $31 billion in new chip
manufacturing, testing and assembly equipment to be shipped in 2001, according to the midyear SEMI Capital Equipment Consensus
Forecast.
The downturn has been felt across all high-tech industries, including the sellers of computers, the manufacturers of the chips and the
makers of the equipment to create the chips, said Stanley Myers of the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International trade group.
"The bust in the end markets led to lower demand and overcapacity, which also led to over-inventory," he said at the Semicon West trade
show. "Chip makers simply stopped ordering new high-tech manufacturing equipment."
The survey of 71 chip equipment makers also showed some optimism that the capital equipment markets are nearing bottom. The forecast
anticipates a growth of 11.6 percent, to $34.6 billion, in 2002, and 22.5 percent growth, to $42.4 billion, in 2003.
Nearly 40 percent of equipment makers expect to hit bottom in the final quarter of this year while, about 35 percent believe the worst will
be over some time after the end of the year.
At the other end of the cycle, more than half the companies surveyed believe orders will reach a high point in the first half of 2003.
In the data released Monday, new orders showed signs of stabilizing in May after steadily declining since August. But it's not clear whether
that marks the bottom.
"We have to wait for an additional month's data to determine if orders are in fact bottoming out - and whether this is a trend or an
anomaly," Myers said.
Ultimately, the prospects for a recovery depend heavily on the health of the worldwide economy, said Arthur Zafiropoulo, chief executive
of Ultratech Stepper Inc.
"This is a global downturn and requires a global improvement to offset this downturn before we start to see major capital expenditure
spending again," he said. |
