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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 221.88-5.7%3:23 PM EST
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To: Rick Storm who wrote (49272)7/17/2001 10:23:57 AM
From: robert b furman  Read Replies (2) of 70976
 
Hi Rick,

I think the news media is doing some overeaction here.

Intc's mid conference report (the first ever) indicated stability in microprocessor ordering.I read that to mean the inventory channel is clearing or cleared.Add that to Msft saying their sales will be better than the upper limit and I read that to mean computers are selling at some price ranges.

So if Intc cuts prices then they clean out the inventory first.Keep in mind that Intc has steadfastly maintained their expansion plans at 7.5 billion.They have been the first to "pilot 300 mm wafers and are now producing P4 chips.They were the first to produce .13 micron chips.These are all efficiencey savings technology upgrades.If 7.5 billion won't allow some leadership with aggressive pricing tactics - then this whole segment will really slow down.

If however the same number of fabs produce faster chips at less cost then the leaders will maintain margins at lower sales prices And run a lean distribution channel.The main key here is to be first. I believe and expect Intel to own this position.From talking to high level people within the industry believe this Intel demands to be first.They are very high pressure and demanding to the manufacturers of semi equip to be the bestand to be best on schedule - or be on the outside looking in.

I believe they will turn the psychology when they announce.They will reaffirm that they are dominant and leading. JMHO
Just bot 1000 Nvls at 45.60 - gulp
Bob
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