bobby b...
re:
["dood, your pretty screamin thumpin you chest bearish hear with the osx 14 day rsi at 18.5, i bet we are close to a bottom for a really nice rally."]
...bobby; I think you've missed the point.
It's "WHEN" (took 75% of my entire oilpatch portfolio off the table @ OSX 140 in 9/00 & called NG short 12/30/00 @ $10mcf & XNG 272) and "WHY" - "sell euphoria, sell the "sizzle" of the new paradigm/energy crisis and exit from a smaller long trading position on the slowing global economy with that early spring supply build trend - which was the "final" exit call that all the Oilpatch PermaBulls poo-poo'd when we made it... that's "when, where & why" we began thumpin' our chest bearish....unlike the chihuahua's who seem to be historic revisionists; we were bearish at the top; we just didn't start thumpin' our chest here after collapsing 50 OSX points fwiw ... ;)
Also, don't expect many kudo's coming from here for someone that show's up and call's a DCB bottom off a 7% blow off day in the OSX after it's allready tumbled 50+ point straight downhill... that doesn't take much.
Two questions:
Where were you at the bottom - OSX 45 in late '98/early '99 ... we didn't see, or hear you then ?
Where were you at the top - at OSX 140/XNG 272 w/ $10 NG & $35 Oil ... we didn't see, or hear you then either ?
...getting in at THE bottom AND then also calling the top and an exit from the trading range game on the last OSX 135ish resistance failure would get you kudo's if you showed up here calling a bottom re-entry, but not now.
We've seen lot's of bottoms called here... from NAZ 3500 all the way down each and every 100 points & from OSX 110-115, 105, 98, 92, 88 and now yesterday... obviously the "odds" are getting better that "someone" will get it right... but; that misses the entire point to successfully trading cyclicals.
My point is that both the "BIG and the EASY" money has allready been made for this cycle... those who can now stand up & be counted for entering somewhere near the bottom & exiting (thumpin their chest's bearish) at the top - can be counted on one hand across the iNet Oilpatch threads.
Building an entry at/near the bottom and then most importantly exiting somewhere near the top - and then staying out on any portfolio weighted basis was "the game" - as history has clearly dictated that playing the late cycle collapse on any countertrend rally basis is , was and will allways be a high risk/low reward - fool's game; for which low single digit %'s of traders will walk away with little, if "any" retained profits from the entire cycle ie: 97-98 cycle deja vu all over again...
good luck |
