Intel Corporation (INTC) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)

INTC 36.38

-1.3%

Dec 22 3:59 PM EST

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To: COMMON_SENSE who wrote (139370)	7/17/2001 12:36:18 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (1) of 186894

Re: Where would any wise man want to invest? Until quite recently, Intel's quarterly MPU revenues were running at nearly $6 Billion (30 million parts * $200 ASPs) and their total corporate costs were less than that - everything else was gravy. As this price war intensifies, and AMD enters Intel's Mobile and SMP markets as well as their desktop market with average ASPs of $75, Intel's ASPs could easily drop to $125. That would drop Intel's MPU revenues by $75 * 30 million parts or $2.25 Billion per quarter. Intel's costs have been rising as it aggressively expands its FABs and non-IAC businesses, and Flash and other non-IAC business fare poorly. Their quarterly losses could approach $3 Billion in a worst case scenario. Intel's current assets - Intel's current liabilities equals a little over $10 Billion. I wouldn't expect the street to put much of a price on a company that looks to be losing $Billions per quarter for several quarters. Right now that $10 Billion in net short term assets is being valued by the street at $190 Billion. If Intel looks to be losing money for the indefinite future, that $190 Billion market valuation would have room to go lower. If the SOI process that IBM and Motorola have been raving about, and that AMD has licensed and is implementing, works out.... But that's all for this present quarter, and future quarters, when AMD's notebooks are on the shelves of retailers and AMD's SMP systems are starting to appear. The quarter about to be reported on is one that ended a couple of weeks ago, and I expect that the numbers from that one will be pretty good. I also expect Intel to paint what it will call a cautious scenario that will include very optimistic numbers. The stock will probably rise, near term.

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