..I think the biggest factor everyone is banking on is the GHz Oasis. People just don't NEED a 1.8GHz machine. There is no "new" app to use that new found speed nor can most users tell the difference between a 1GHz machine or a 1.8GHz one when siting in front of one. The performance gap were talking about is a second, half a second, maybe even less??? This is not like the HUGE jumps people saw in previous chip upgrade cycles, IMO. Sure you have your pc game freaks, engineering, CAD, etc that will find a use for the new GHz....but not like in the past many cycles.
I'm not sure I agree there... It remains to be seen what kind of a hog XP is along with the accompanying software... My 1GHz P3 isn't nearly as fast as I'd hope on certain applications (read, I like to massively multitask). I shudder to think what XP would do to the system speed-wise (though I would like to dump some of the Win 98 crashes!).
AMD went after the phat part of the market and did a damn good job getting it's share. Now going forward they don't need to pump up the GHz much, just market and price their stuff just below INTC's and keep eating their lunch and gaining market share. I was never a big fan of AMD but am starting to become one. Past cycles have shown them to get spanked by the mighty, I think this time it will be different.
As AMD proved... just because you hold a certain amount of market share doesn't mean that someone else isn't going to take it away. AMD can't get complacent... if their technology starts looking old and dated, they can kiss new sales goodbye. AMD has had stretches of success punctuated by stretches of abject failure. I see nothing to indicate there is something fundamentally different about today vs. any other time in their 30 year history.
Hey I could be way wrong and some new app comes out next week, or INTC does their "crushing AMD dance" to perfection but for now I'm not betting on it.
Like I said... let's see what happens when XP comes out... Furthermore, the price war seems to be hurting AMD a LOT. Bottom line is Intel has more ca$h... |
