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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

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To: Annette who wrote (39123)7/17/2001 2:16:47 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (2) of 65232
 
as the new recovery climate emerges next year,
and as we face a slightly higher nominal inflation rate,
I see bigger firms badly exposed before long

the smaller more nimble firms will eat away at their customer base
they will make better and faster decisions
they will take wiser risks, and prosper

the much vaunted productivity gains will continue to a lesser degree
and bigger companies will have more trouble implementing them

from an investment standpoint, this means extra stress on the bigger firms
I see much of S&P perhaps NOT keeping up
but SmallCap and MidCap will grow handsomely
this is a point made clear by Stephen Leeb of Personal Finance
one sharp cookie
check out the freeby on www.pfnewsletter.com
he expects inflation rate of 4-6% steadily throughout this decade
it will become clear ONLY after the recesssssssion ends
and the recovery begins

he calls it the beginning of The Era of Shortage
California power blackouts are the birth pangs of this era
inflation will be its hallmark
turning a profit will become much harder across the spectrum
I agree 100%

some really smart friends disagree with me and Leeb
they think productivity gains will continue and offset
but I think we are very soon to see real material shortage
and energy shortage
and fuel shortage
and land shortage
and water shortage
and maybe even food shortage
prices will reflect these shortages, as costs are passed down

we will see
/ jim
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