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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory

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To: Terry Whitman who wrote (4297)7/17/2001 6:11:26 PM
From: Mark Adams  Read Replies (1) of 33421
 
I'll take a moment to comment on chart 7. In effect, during the period prior to 2000, gains in networth were realized. It is true that this trend reversed itself, and networth has declined since. But you have to look at the cumulative effect- ie add up the area underneath the line when positive and then subtract the area above the line while negative.

In effect- what you'll find is that while some dis-saving has taken place (for the most part amongst the highest quintile of networth/income population) recently, much additional dis-savings may occur before the wall is hit. He does go on later to point out that such a wall might occur sooner than later should the trend continue, as assets are liquefied to meet current liquidity needs- a valid concern.

I've spent quite some time studying the numbers his charts are based on, and concluded that it is possible for the wall to be hit, but currently assign a low probability to that outcome. BWDIK?
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