Comparative Subscriber Growth by Technology - A 3 /6 /12 Month Look
As I've commented before, sub growth activity in a single month or a single quarter is not indicative of much - particularly because of smoothing of prepaids. One quarter can give a trend indication but 6 month and 12 month looks, give a better indication.
Unofficial six month 2001 numbers are now in from EMC.
These numbers won't be official till UWCC reports audited numbers and CDG drags their butt in around September. When "official audited counts are in, I will revise this scorecard.
It obviously remains a little premature for anyone to say that GSM is Toast.
EMC always forecasts GSM growth very conservatively. They keep a weather eye peeled for "prepaid adjustments" which have already begun in Europe so that carriers can better show off APRU which has been declining, partially due to keeping prepaids on the books to long.
This year they forecast that GSM subscriber growth will increase by only 121 million from 455.1 million to 575.7 million.
In only 6 months, however, GSM is showing net adds of 99 million (82% of the annual forecast) with the peak selling months ahead, so it appears that GSM will again exceed 200 million net sub adds, blowing away the forecast (once again).
We won't see too much conversion from TDMA to GSM reflected in the sub numbers this year, but that will start next year as AWS, and Telcel (Mexico) start to convert. In 2003 we are really likely to start to see some impact from this as it is likely several others will be starting conversions.
China sub growth will kick in for CDMA next year and SKT sub reduction allowing them to market aggressively will bolster CDMA numbers in Korea.
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Worldwide Sub Growth Reaches 843.5 million
Through end of May there are 843.5 million subscribers as calculated by EMC Cellular who is generally considered to be the most credible source of subscriber statistics in the world.
Subscriber counts have increased by 136 million in 6 months, an indication that the economy, penetration, and "stale' handsets and services, are retarding "cellular" and PCS growth somewhat. Sub growth however should be over 300 million this year, and the billion sub mark could be broken by year end.
Analog AMPS continues to fade away but TDMA is holding its own (for now), but declining as a percentage of world subscribers as is PDC. In general reduction of analog subs has translated to increase in CDMA or TDMA subs, but that is changing because of GSM expansion in the Americas.
The numbers break out this way:
Unoficial" Subscriber Growth by Wireless Technology thru June 30, 2001
Technology Subs (Million) % All % Digital 6Mo Adds 6Mo. Growth
GSM 553.9 65.7% 70.6% 98.8M 21.7%
CDMA 96.5 11.5% 12.3% 14.6M 17.8%
TDMA* 80.3 9.5% 10.2% 16.0M 24.9%
PDC 54.2 6.4% 6.9% 3.4M 6.7%
Total Digital 784.9 - 100.0% 125.7M 23.1%
Total Analog 58.6 6.9% - -10.7M -15.4%
Total Subs 843.5 100.0% - 136.4 19.3%
* TDMA subs may be overestimated by EMC (see notes below) which means that CDMA percentage of all, and percentage of digital, may actually be just slightly higher and TDMA just slightly lower than reported here. UWCC is reporting 76.9 million estimated TDMA subs today on their web site.
Source: EMC World Cellular Database which excludes ESMR & PHS subs
gsmworld.com
* TDMA still growing fastest (regardless) on an annualized basis. Official quarter ending numbers by EMC (GSM), CDG (CDMA), and UWCC (TDMA) will be revealing, particularly when looked at from a 12 month and 6 month perspective. The really significant numbers will be year ending.
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Sub Growth in Q2 (3 Months)
GSM net adds = 50.4 million = +10.0% (since Q1 end)
CDMA net adds = 6.1 million = +6.7% (since Q1 end)
TDMA net adds = 4.9 million = +6.5% (since Q1 end)
* GSM growing fastest with CDMA second and TDMA third. This is a trend reversal in favor of CDMA v. TDMA if official figures bear it out.
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Sub Growth January Through June Examined Closer (6 months)
GSM net adds = 98.8 million = +21.7% (since C00 end)
CDMA net adds = 16.1 million = +20.0% (since C00 end)* see Notes
TDMA net adds = 16.0 million = +24.9% (since C00 end)** see Notes
TDMA net adds = 15.9 million = +26.1% (since C00 end)*** see Notes
Notes on 6 Month 2001 Sub Growth( The TDMA reporting dilemma)
All GSM numbers used in this calculation are from EMC.
* CDG's year 2000 ending number of 80,440,000 rather than EMC's ending CDMA number of 81.9 million is used so the result here is more favorable to CDMA than if EMC's year ending number was used. It appears EMC has smoothed the numbers for CDMA because Q1 ending numbers for CDMA for Q1 ending reported by CDG & EMC are now virtually identical.
** Uses EMC "official" for TDMA 2001 ending base (not UWCC's) and EMC's for June ending (less favorable to TDMA growth rate).
*** Uses UWCC "official" 61 million for TDMA 2000 ending base not EMC's 64.3 million and numbers from the UWCC web site (76.9 million) for June ending. I am not comfortable with EMC's numbers for TDMA, as they haven't smoothed year ending and Q1 ending discrepancy yet. UWCC numbers are used in the 12 month analyses.
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12 Month Sub Growth
Millions of Subscribers Growth
Technology Jun-00 Sep-00 Dec-00 Mar-01 Jun-00 Net YOY
CDMA 65.9 71.0 80.4 90.4 96.5 30.6 46.4%
TDMA 47.1 53.5 61.0 68.3 76.9 29.8 63.3%
GSM 337.1 361.7 455.1 503.5 553.9 216.6 64.3%
Fastest Growing Technologies
1. GSM added 216.6 million subs for 64.3% YOY growth.
2. TDMA added 29.8 million subs for 63.3% YOY growth.
3. CDMA added 30.6 million subs for 46.4% YOY growth.
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12 Month Relative Market Share of CDMA & GSM
CDMA Market Share GSM Market Share
% of all % of digital % of all % of digital
Q2 2001 End 11.5% 12.3% 65.7% 70.6%
Q1 2001 End 12.1% 13.2% 64.4% 70.0%
Q4 2000 End 11.5% 12.7% 64.4% 71.4%
Q3 2000 End 11.8% 13.4% 59.0% 67.8%
Q2 2000 End 11.9% 13.9% 56.6% 66.1%
In one year CDMA market share has declined marginally (<.5% of all subs) while GSM market share has increased by 16% (8,9% of all subs). GSM has increased digital market share by 6.9% (4.5% of digital subs) while CDMA has declined marginally.
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Key Ratios
Ratio of GSM subs to CDMA subs 06/30/00 = 5.12:1
Ratio of GSM subs to CDMA subs 2000 end = 5.56:1
Current Ratio of GSM subs to CDMA subs = 5.74:1
Subscriber Net Adds GSM to CDMA for last 12 months = 7.08:1
Subscriber Net Adds GSM to CDMA since 2000 year end = 6.77:1
Subscriber Net Adds GSM to CDMA for Q2 01 = 8.3:1
* GSM is widening this gap and increasing market share
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GSM (and TDMA) in Latin America
Latin American GSM subscribers have increased 800,000 in 5 months from 1.7 million to 2.5 million.
That may not sound like much but it is a 47% increase in 5 months (127% in 12 months) and whereas 18 months ago there were <5 GSM networks in Latin America there are now 19 (established or being established).
The major GSM buildout will be by TIM in Brazil in new 1800 MHz spectrum. It hasn't really commenced. Another one to watch is in Mexico Telcel/Radio Movil DIPSA de C.V. (TDMA conversion) which has not really commenced either.
* GSM is starting to step out as "fastest growing" technology in Latin America.
The Americas, China, and India are now all crucial battlefields for CDMA.
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The 1 Billion Worldwide Subscriber Milestone
We are closing in on the 1 Billion Sub mark worldwide.
Last year Cahners In-Stat projected that the 1 Billion mark would be busted by June 2001. Jorma Ollila also intimated the mark would be reached at that time.
EMC was more conservative and forecast 1 Billion by mid 2002, and Ericsson used that number.
CDG was using Volpe, Brown, Wheelan, who forecast that the Billion mark would not be exceeded till 2003, but ironically significantly overforcasted CDMA growth last year while significantly underforcasting GSM.
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Micrologic Research's Cellular Telephone Sales by Technology
Millions of Units - YOY Growth - Market Share
'96 '97 '98 '99 '00
GSM 18.6 48.4 99.8 186.2 249.8
YOY% - +160% +106% +87% +34%
% all 30% 43% 57% 64% 62%
CDMA 0.9 7.4 15.9 33.5 54.9
YOY% - +720% +115% +110% +64%
% all 1% 7% 9% 12% 14%
TDMA 1.4 7.7 12.7 22.8 41.6
YOY% - +450% +65% +80% +83%
% all 2% 7% 7% 8% 10%
Total 61.7 112.2 173.6 291.7 403.4
Micrologic forecasted 92 million CDMA handsets for 2001 (17.2%) v. 327 GSM (61%) & 56 million TDMA (10.5%) out of a total of 535.1 million.
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That’s the detail.
I'll summarize someday, maybe.
Always possible I calculated incorrectly somewhere.
- Eric - |
