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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 681.44

+1.6%

Nov 10 4:00 PM EST

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To: The Freep who wrote (80392)	7/17/2001 11:02:01 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Freep, I put in Niles' comment because he was bearish on the stock because he believed that business will get worse. One can make a PE argument against it too but that was not what he was getting at. He felt that demand would not be there. He made similiar comments at the mid quarter update and did not believe Intel's numbers versus what he heard from the PC vendors. IMHO, the answers are quite obvious. 1. D-E-L-L .....it will be hard to track shipments from this all Intel boxmaker. No retail channel. It is well known how aggressively they are trying to take market share. Dan cites Compaq but is overlooking the obvious. 2. China is an emerging market and there will be other new PC vendors (maybe small ones). They are in a big economic development cycle....1 billion people! Did you notice how Dell was moving up today (6% gain) ahead of Intel's earnings...makes you wonder what investors/traders were thinking today.<g> Actually, I take the part about Microsoft back. I am very bullish on both Intel and Microsoft..expecting MSFT to be more volatile while Intels starts a steady upward climb soon. This week might be tricky because of options expiration. Here is another comment out of Niles. ``Quite honestly, I'm surprised Intel was this bullish going into the summer, given that most of Intel's pre-announcements in the past tend to come in the third quarter,'' Niles said. Even if Niles makes negative comments tomorrow, this kind of comment will have him rethinking his bearishness and so will the traders who follow him...at least he is honest. You can see that he is having some sort of debate in his head.<g> My point is that Intel's business seems to suggest that it has bottomed (and will head up) while Niles was expecting it to get worse. That is the real issue he has to face and might be forced to change his rating (near term) even if only by one notch. dailynews.yahoo.com

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