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Strategies & Market Trends : Mu Gamma Lambda
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To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (2234)7/18/2001 11:27:55 AM
From: Original Mad Dog  Read Replies (1) of 10077
 
That's an interesting thesis.....but I can't say I totally agree with it. The statistics the U.S. keeps on exports are not entirely accurate, and tend to understate the real valuation of the export of services and technology expertise, which due to our high labor costs and lack of manufacturing excellence are the major things the U.S. has that others want. So while it may be that there was a surplus bubble in U.S. demand over the past few years, I don't know if it is reasonable to conclude that the trade "imbalance", if it even exists, will cause a sustained decline.

I am more of the opinion that this will be about two years of very little or no growth, maybe slightly negative. That's eight quarters, and we're in the third one already probably.

So early 2003 is when the ship starts to sail forward again, as I see it. Since the market usually anticipates that by a year or so, we may be looking at a bottom early next year and then a series of higher lows and more sustained rallies in 2002.
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