Stan, agree that market does not have to tank, though I think it is possible, maybe even probable. It is my preferred scenario, so we can move forward from there. Otherwise, I think we face a long period of time of treading water, as you suggested, for things to work themselves out. This is even less fun than a quick crushing blow. But indeed, the amount of money being thrown at this market, and the investor complacency and unshakeable belief that the market always goes up, argues for just that. But money is getting tighter, as debt is being pushed to the limit, and layoffs,slowing economy, and sinking stocks will create some worry so that people will start focusing on debt instead of investments. As you said, it could take some mysterious force to really roil the markets and have people abandon investments, but it's certainly not unimaginable. Worry is showing now, global economy is slowing, consumers and businesses are about tapped out from bad investments. In my opinion, most stocks are already priced for recovery and then some. Would not take too much to see Nasdaq 1000, S&P 800, and Dow 8000. But, who knows?
JP |
