panic,
<Is it deja vu all over again, at least sentiment wise?>
Not quite! AMD has not posted a loss so far. Once that happens the sentiment will change.
<IIRC, during 97 and early 99, Intel had an upper hand in both product and process. ASP colapsed and AMD almost got killed, at least in the media. The result was many longs made boot load of money in late 99 and early 2000.>
That's because some people understood the value of the K7 core before others.
<Now, Intel seams to have an upper hand again in product and process, thanks to "Mega Hertz Sells" mantra. ASP colapses and AMD is on the blink of red tape. IMHO, this situation won't change much untill Hammer on .13 SOI comes to life. AFAIK, Intel doesn't have a counterpart to Hammer.>
It is probably not a good thing to bet that Intel does not have anything to counter Hammer. Hammer has been too well publicized and AMD has given Intel a lot of time to prepare for it.
<So longs are bleeding now, but will make it up in 2003, again?>
May be. Once we get a better understanding of Hammer we will know.
<One thing is for sure. When you started to complain about AMD execution in general and Duron in particular in summer 2000, it WAS the time to sell. >
I saw the problems early but I grossly underestimated the incompetence at 1 AMD place. I would have been a richer man had I better estimated the lack of AMD's marketing/management prowess.
<Well, I think I have to wait til 2003, accumulating in the teens?>
I don't expect the stock to go up by much until there is a new core or a corporate breakthroguh. I don't see much point accumulating now.
Chuck |
