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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Knight who wrote (44643)7/18/2001 1:12:43 PM
From: Greg Jung  Read Replies (2) of 54805
 
Knight,

Good post. I'll try to respond in kind.

I made the post in reaction to my readings on the thread, to put my opinion
in pithy and controversial form, not to be rude or taunting. My reaction being,
that as investors the groupthink here seems to be to lock yourselves in "the framework".
In fact, stock investing has a lot more messy stuff surrounding it, so much so that
it is sometimes almost disconnected from the underlying biz however sexy that may be.

The ability of a tech company to generate predictable profits is suspect if not nil,
moreover the revenues in the boom period have been predicated on the draining of
personal wealth through the failed investments of the dot-coms, etc.
... etc. you have seen this argument ...

OTOH some companies can rise up and get a real good revenue/earnings
flow going - especially small niche companies - generally in technology these
moneys are "plowed back into" the biz basically never coming out except in the
executive salaries. The "creative destruction" which one might otherwise celebrate is
a pretty crappy underlying basis to profit from stock-picking, especially for public
companies where, as I alude to above, the cream has already been skimmed long
before it ever trickles to the public investor. Given these aspects of tech companies
the "hold and hope" investment mode does not appear to be workable.
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