Isopatch, I'm relieved that you and your colleagues do not have to be glued to the computer all day long and that you still do short or intermediate term trading. From what you and others are saying, I guess there is an implicit assumption that certain kinds of oil and gas stocks cannot be considered as reasonable investments for other than a short time horizon. Those would be the kinds of investments I would avoid simply because I look only for long term appreciation.
It may be, as you suggest, that long term appreciation is impossible for at least certain oil and gas issues. Then, as I said above, I would avoid them altogether, not because they aren't good investments but because they are not the kinds of investments I make.
If I understand your view of current oil issues, you would be out of the market at the moment. Looking at the weakness in prices of many oil issues, I'd say you have quite a following, or that many investors at least share your views. Since I'm somewhat contrarian, the current weakness makes me think maybe some companies are being overlooked simply because people like to group similar companies into a single category, assuming that the fortunes will be the same for all. Of course, I disagree, preferring to look at the pros and cons of each individual company on the assumption that maybe management quality, proprietary technology, track record of oil and gas discoveries, etc., has SOME relationship with future profits. For those with a very short time horizon, these concerns are relatively unimportant.
Art |
