it seems my estimate of 1/10 of a percent was right on target
04:25pm EDT 18-Jul-01 CIBC World Markets Corp. (Quinn Bolton 212-667-8680) INTC
INTC: Market Share Study CORRECTION; Intel Took Unit Share From AMD In 2Q01
CIBC World Markets
July 18, 2001
Semiconductors Intel Corporation
N. Quinn Bolton, CFA (212) 667-8680 Market Share Study CORRECTION;
Allan Mishan (212) 667-7756 Intel Took Unit Share From AMD
In 2Q01
Investment Conclusion
Upon another review of last night's earnings Rating: STRONG BUY
conference call, we are adjusting our unit INTC-OTC(7/17/2001) $28.91
and ASP assumptions for Intel 2Q01 52-week $75.81-22.25
shipments. Based on our new unit shipment Shares Out 6.9 Billion
assumptions, we now believe Intel took unit Float 6.3 Billion Shares
market share as well as revenue market share Market Cap $199 Billion
from AMD in 2Q01. Div/Yield $0.08/0.3%
Based on our initial interpretation of Fiscal Year December
management's comments, we modeled that Book Value $5.33 per Share
microprocessor units increased by one 2001E ROE 9.7%
million units to 26.0 million units in 2Q01. LT Debt $901 Million
However, upon a second review, we note that Preferred Nil
management stated that microprocessor units Com Equity $37 Billion
were up 6% sequentially, or by MORE than a
million units.
In our revenue model, we estimate that Intel
shipped 25.0 million units in 1Q01. Using Earnings per Share
this base, a 6% unit increase would imply 2000 $0.70
that Intel actually shipped 26.5 million 2001E $0.51
units in 2Q01, up 1.5 million units 2002E $0.70
sequentially, instead of our modeled 26.0
million units. P/E Ratio
Plugging this new estimate of an incremental 2000 41.3X
1.5 million units shipped in 2Q01 into our 2001E 56.7X
market share analysis, we now believe that 2002E 41.3X
Intel actually increased its unit market
share by 9 bps, in addition to increasing * Earnings Per Share Before
its revenue market share by 117 bps (this Goodwill (EBG)
estimate remains unchanged) in the quarter.
Exhibit 2 and 3, p 3, display our new market
share analysis, while Exhibits 4 and 5, p Company Description:
4., shows the changes in our unit shipment Intel Corporation is the
and ASP assumptions for Intel. dominant supplier of
Thanks to the client who pointed out our microprocessors in the PC
mistake. industry and also sells related
communications-oriented
components and flash-memory
chips.
Exhibit 7: Recent INTC Share Price History
Source: CIBC World Markets Corp. estimates.
Exhibit 2: Intel vs. AMD Market Share Estimate Changes Summary
Note: Items that have changed are denoted in bold and italicized.
Source: CIBC World Markets Corp. estimates
Exhibit 3: Intel vs. AMD Market Share Estimate Changes
Source: CIBC World Markets Corp. estimates
Exhibit 4: Intel's Microprocessor Unit, ASP, and Revenue Estimate Change
Summary
Source: CIBC World Markets Corp. estimates
Exhibit 5: Intel's Microprocessor Unit and ASP Estimate Changes
Source: CIBC World Markets Corp. estimates.
Our quarterly EPS estimates are shown below.
1 Qtr. 2 Qtr. 3 Qtr. 4 Qtr. Year
2000 Actual $0.12 $0.13 $0.19 $0.25 $0.70
2001E Current $0.16A $0.12A $0.10E $0.12E $0.51E
2002E Current $0.12E $0.13E $0.19E $0.25E $0.70E
Stock prices of public companies mentioned in this report:
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD-NYSE $20.42, Not Rated) |
