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Strategies & Market Trends : Pump's daily trading recs, emphasis on short selling
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To: Steve Fancy who wrote (4250)7/18/2001 6:48:42 PM
From: XBrit  Read Replies (2) of 6873
 
I dunno if anyone here subscribes to Don Hays market commentaries. He's had a really excellent record this year on calling the market. And always backs his stuff up with solid multi-factor analysis.

Since March (when the 10-day ARMS average broke 1.5) he's been calling for a medium-term mini-bull, until late this year; followed by a drop to new lows which will be the next phase of the bear market. This week he's wavering in that call, says (paraphrased) the weakness the past 6 weeks may not support his outlook.

You and Michail and Hays basically see the same scenario, just with different timeframes. Will the next big downdraft be in late summer (i.e. real soon), in the fall, or in early 2002.?

I've got one market call dead wrong this year, but fwiw my guess is that the trading range will hold until the Sept-Oct warning/earning season. With recent rate cuts, upcoming tax refunds, and continued irrational optimism from tech execs/analysts, I think there may be enough faith and hope left to paper the cracks for another couple months.

In Sept/Oct I'd guess there will finally be no doubt that recovery is not coming in early 2002, and the market will react.
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