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Strategies & Market Trends : Guidance and Visibility

AAPL 267.46

-1.9%

Nov 17 3:59 PM EST

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To: Bald Man from Mars who wrote (6740)	7/18/2001 9:34:58 PM
From: ChrisJP	Read Replies (1) of 208838

Hi Baldy, sorry it took me so long to respond to you regarding your question. Ummmm ..... according to everything you read, we are already at fair value on the NASDAQ. We bottomed at 1600ish in April and are working our way back up. I personally don't believe it. I think we're heading back down. Fair value of the NASDAQ is tough, but in my rosy scenario maybe it'll bottom at 1200 - 1400 between late October and early April 2002. The S&P 500 is easier to gauge. Its PE is something like 23 and historical average PE is something like 15 so I'm guessing it is 20% overvalued. So maybe when the S&P 500 hits 900 - 1000 we will be at the bottom. One thing to note is that most of the stocks making the S&P 500 so overvalued are NASDAQ tech stocks. lol The other thing I'd look for is low volume . The markets did not bottom in April due to capitulation. They bottomed in April because people needed money to pay their capital gains on mutual funds and the institutions knew this so they shorted the crap out of these stocks. I'd like to see the market bottom on low volume as an indication that the public has finally realized that it's been 2 1/2 years since they've made any money in the stock market and it'll probably be another 2 years before the will again and they're sick and tired of all the crap and deception surrounding it. quote.yahoo.com^SPC&d=c&k=c2&a=v&p=m50,m200,e50,e200&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l Just my pleasant thoughts, Chris

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