Hello Donald,
>>>EVERYONE I KNOW is invested in the market....They don't even watch their mutual fund prices, they just throw $$$$ in religeously month after month after month.<<<<
Tulipmania Anyone?
People have lost complete connection with financial responsibility. Many people who are invested now would never have thought of diving into the market 5 or 6 years ago - now the eurphoria has sucked in everyman.
One thing I thought was missing, according to Galbraith's "Speculative Episodes" was high leverage. Margin accounts are limited now, but this is everyman's market, not like 29'. The leverage today is PLASTIC. Think about it. How many CC do you have. How many times a week do you receive solicitations in the mail for CC's. Banks would love to suck you in to rake in 18%. Hell their even throwing in Airline miles, computer credits, credits towards cars . . . People now use credit cards to purchase everyday items. The're even test marketing them in Mickey D's. You can buy that Artery Choker with LEVERAGE, how sweet.
Today a bank called me, trying to hawk me into getting a business account with them. They offered me a $50,000 unsecured credit line, with no paper work, just as long as I was in business for 2 years - IT BLEW ME AWAY! No way this would have happened a few years ago. Complete disconnection from financial responsiblity and reality.
I think interest rates will drop to the floor. I actually am seeing the world economy slowing way to fast. Many commodities are seeing lower prices due to the demand-supply dynamic, either lower demand, or bigger supply or BOTH. All this technology has dramatically fueled productivity gains - we can pump these products out like crazy. Look at the downtrend in oil, futures traders expect it to hit 16 after this suckers bubble is resolved (iraqi situation). Soon as iraqi oil starts flowing, the already plentiful reserves will grow even fatter. Coffee just recently crashed dramatically - this is the Starbucks Generation. Computer Technology is helping along disinflation, with high productivity gains and now a cheapy netpc, will revolutionize the workplace and cut computing cost dramatically (and the computer industry profit margins).
The recent trend toward Socialism in Europe is way way bad for business. That is why the "coward capital"(Trader Guru IQBAL LATIF's term - he's on the IDEA thread and lives in France) is flowing into our market bubble.
Donald I agree if you stand in front of the bull you will be trampled. Someday the bull will tire. Life is about cycles - Birth - Death, Breath Out - Breath In, Wax On - Wax Off, BOOM - BUST.
Happy 25th Anniversary of Watergate today!
It is eiree that we have a poster on this board by the name of Ground Zero.
Good luck all, Bob
Disclaimer: I'm a nobody, little smucky small business man - what the HEC do I know! |
